As this war continues to intensify, the probability of economic side effects that we don’t know about in this moment rise in tandem. It’s clear that Putin is on the edge of rational at best, and wildly irrational at worst.
While its impossible for a small investor like me to deeply understand an incredible complex situation let alone the knock on effects economically, the best one can do is own “antifragile” companies.
These are businesses that have management teams that thrive in difficult times, run overcapitalized balance sheets, and exhibit strong patience. But the worst of times can hurt even the most prepared companies. Thus having cash on hand as a buffer to a deteriorating future expectations and prices is key to keeping calm.
While I hope there is no major downturn, the probability of one is likely far greater than it was only a few weeks ago.