Short one today as I woke up late (relatively speaking), due to sleeping late, due to a book that is too exciting and entertaining for night reading. If curious the book is called Undermoney, and it is a fiction novel involving finance, warlords, and the military – what is not to like? It’s written by Jay Newman, who I previously mentioned, the guy who seized Argentina’s naval vessel while fighting the government for better sovereign bond recoveries on his Argentine debt. Who would have thought a hedge fund guy could write fiction but it’s shockingly detailed and a decent read.
Anyways, housing is unwinding, at least from it’s blow off top. Phoenix, ground zero for the prior housing bust and perhaps also ground zero for the most cap rate compression over the ensuing decade, is headed back to normalcy. Listings are back to 2018 levels, which mind you, was still a hot time for housing. According to the guy below there are 2 months of supply on the market. Things are bad when it’s closer to a year.
I don’t really care about San Francisco real estate but I also do really care, because as a human I want our choice to sell our condo to be an unequivocally good decision in hindsight. I am human, after all.
San Francisco inventory is heading north, but nothing like the 07-11 timeframe. We’ll see how things shake out.