As the market gyrates, with it down dramatically two days prior and up materially yesterday, the predictable stream of platitudes and Buffett-isms are filling my Twitter stream. Buy when fear is greatest. If you’re not investing now, you’re making a macro call (implying a macro call in it of itself). Etc., etc.
In my opinion, platitudes are cheap. They make someone feel better about making a blind decision. For example, my stocks are going down and it doesn’t feel good – this must mean buy based on what Buffett said in a 1972 shareholder letter, right? In reality, the platitudes align an investor to another investor’s process and plan, not your own. Furthermore they oversimplify a difficult set of decisions.
I’d add that most investors today haven’t been through a real downturn. A downturn in which there is true end market demand destruction. One in which employers are shedding jobs by the truckload and unemployment hits 10%. No, Covid does not count.
Downturns don’t happen all at once, they take time. It’s not a quick buy the dip and be done with it, like it was during Covid, 2018, 2014, etc. The real downturns feel sort of desperate. Like there’s no light at the end of the tunnel. When the platitudes run out and real investors get to work.
While the above may imply that I know better than others, I assure you that I do not. We simply continue to keep a healthy cash buffer, own investments that aggressively push cash back to us, and make incremental investments as cash builds. Investment hero acts generate worship, but also breed financial ruin.