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Snake Oil

Just finished reading this book over the past few days:

In was good in the sense that it forces me to zoom out a bit and consider some of the un-discussed tail risk that may exist in the world. It was bad in the sense that it basically says the world is going to hell in very short order, buy a farm in rural mountains and hide.

Knowing this book is essentially snake oil is fairly simple as the author describes decades forward predictions with “will happen” and “inevitable” versus outlining potential scenarios with probabilities. He also opines on everything from global debt to naval superiority to near “certain” demographic changes in the future. Nobody is that knowledgable in a way that can predict the future.

In any case, as mentioned, it does breath a bit of caution that punches outside the usual current news cycle of inflation and recession, which is getting quite stale at this point.