You never know when markets have bottomed. Financial media is rife with stories with proof of multi-year downturns along with “Was [the prior day] was the bottom” headlines.
For the most part, especially as measured by sentiment indicators, people both professionals and retail are bearish right now. One ex-GS credit trader I follow on Twitter (@sidprabhu) has been hinting that maybe the inflation scare is starting to peak. Yesterday he tweeted a number of headlines in succession:
- Biden may soon ease Chinese Tariffs (WSJ)
- Chip boom loses steam on slowing PC sales, Crypto rout (WSJ)
- Falling commodity prices raises hopes that inflation has peaked (WSJ)
- Glut of goods at Target, Walmart is boon for liquidators (WSJ)
Perhaps the air is coming out of this boom to the extent that price growth starts slowing. Quietly, the 10yr treasury has dipped back below 3% after shooting up near 3.5%. Remember, financial markets often bottom far in advance of the real economy.