I am no geopolitical expert. But this Russian conflict has obviously made me more interested in the chess moves of sovereign nations.
The Carter Center put out a translated article about what China, a very quiet voice in this conflict, may do and what the implications of the conflict mean for superpower hegemony going forward.
While the article has many potential scenarios, and I encourage reading it if but only to widen one’s views of possibilities, its final paragraph is notable:
China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. As Putin has explicitly requested Russia’s strategic deterrent forces to enter a state of special combat readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian war may spiral out of control. A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little. If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world’s turmoil. To demonstrate China’s role as a responsible major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.
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